Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 20.354471 22.089399 23.962361 26.144772 28.630828 31.390046 34.705662
2025-08-24 17.308750 19.632644 22.313853 25.674911 29.832023 34.883103 41.610280
2025-08-31 15.340641 17.974860 21.169406 25.409031 31.016982 38.381177 49.152286
2025-09-07 13.918745 16.723563 20.260687 25.176969 32.057252 41.728797 57.155768
2025-09-14 12.875139 15.792480 19.593327 25.088968 33.172011 45.264945 66.233173
2025-09-21 11.979095 14.942852 18.909190 24.838006 33.941154 48.341221 75.343321
2025-09-28 11.595174 14.727546 19.043225 25.736007 36.526399 54.752478 92.406415
2025-10-05 10.947261 14.084064 18.496842 25.526563 37.281943 58.171207 104.868320
2025-10-12 10.415144 13.557681 18.064277 25.426353 38.174939 61.987671 119.722704
2025-10-19 10.046529 13.234921 17.898158 25.718102 39.770885 67.490868 141.274235
2025-10-26 9.597833 12.761719 17.460924 25.506481 40.404537 71.155279 159.965488
2025-11-02 9.187278 12.318245 17.033791 25.262175 40.929517 74.697550 180.508006
2025-11-09 8.855363 11.982404 16.764925 25.288931 42.040644 80.011166 211.505276
2025-11-16 8.502415 11.595146 16.387997 25.089188 42.673710 84.396853 243.446753
2025-11-23 8.185552 11.245982 16.048673 24.923486 43.355080 89.138335 282.361530
2025-11-30 7.889580 10.913272 15.713545 24.731399 43.949578 93.855155 327.710558
2025-12-07 7.638154 10.637592 15.455080 24.658042 44.798903 99.614114 388.583788
2025-12-14 7.376539 10.332370 15.126845 24.417871 45.225377 104.267380 452.313135
2025-12-21 7.318186 10.351397 15.355182 25.295313 48.479932 119.465647 642.932574
2025-12-28 7.091379 10.083185 15.063662 25.091732 49.013238 125.511329 775.753734
2026-01-04 6.895424 9.857123 14.833602 24.994247 49.809570 132.962357 967.812037
2026-01-11 6.767428 9.738172 14.787755 25.278839 51.678340 145.713506 1350.945935
2026-01-18 6.577414 9.506584 14.524194 25.072510 52.166147 152.933632 1722.775451